{"id":51007,"date":"2024-05-15T11:00:22","date_gmt":"2024-05-15T10:00:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.climatechangenews.com\/?p=51007"},"modified":"2024-05-21T10:50:03","modified_gmt":"2024-05-21T09:50:03","slug":"in-nagorno-karabakh-azerbaijans-net-zero-vision-clashes-with-legacy-of-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.climatechangenews.com\/2024\/05\/15\/in-nagorno-karabakh-azerbaijans-net-zero-vision-clashes-with-legacy-of-war\/","title":{"rendered":"In Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan’s net zero vision clashes with legacy of war"},"content":{"rendered":"

Neat rows of new houses with solar panels on their turquoise roofs radiate out from the quiet central square of Aghali, a government-branded \u201csmart village\u201d in south-western Azerbaijan. A path lined with yellow bushes leads to the river, where a state-of-the-art hydropower plant produces clean electricity for residents.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Aghali is a pioneering example of Azerbaijan\u2019s plan for \u201cgreen\u201d reconstruction of the territories it captured after a long, bloody conflict with Armenia, centred on the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh mountainous enclave.<\/p>\n

Hundreds of Azeris displaced from the region in the early 1990s have moved back to Aghali, a local government official told Climate Home.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe emotional link to these territories is very strong even though 30 years have passed,\u201d the official said. \u201cOur people are happy to be back\u201d.<\/p>\n

The government says more than 100,000 Azeris will return<\/a> to populate the 30 or so new towns and villages planned across the area by 2026, which are expected to run mainly on clean energy and aim for “net zero” emissions.<\/p>\n

Yet a more troubled story lies beneath the shiny surface presented by the authorities – part of Azerbaijan\u2019s efforts to polish its green credentials before the COP29 UN climate summit it will host in November.<\/p>\n

Some 136,000 ethnic Armenians who had called Nagorno-Karabakh their homeland fled<\/a> in a mass exodus during a two-part military offensive by Azerbaijan that started in 2020 and ended last autumn.<\/p>\n

For Armenian authorities and some human rights and legal experts<\/a>, the drive amounted to \u201cethnic cleansing\u201d – a phrase used in a European Parliament resolution<\/a> on the conflict. A spokesperson for COP29 told Climate Home the Azerbaijan authorities “categorically reject this view”.
\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

With the fighting now over, the two sides are engaged in talks to build a lasting peace. They struck<\/a> an initial agreement to establish border demarcations in April, but hopes of a swift breakthrough on a permanent solution remain slim.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, displaced Armenians have said publicly they fear the heritage sites and homes they hastily left behind will be erased under a giant construction effort. Evidence of this was seen last month by Climate Home on a press trip organised and sponsored by the COP29 Presidency team, which controlled access to locations and sources in the region.<\/p>\n

\u2018Net zero\u2019 vision<\/b><\/h3>\n

Azerbaijan has built its prowess, both on and off the battlefield, on the strength of its vast oil and gas reserves. Around 60 percent of the government\u2019s budget is financed<\/a> through the sale of fossil fuels, primarily via export to Europe.<\/p>\n

Last month, Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev called<\/a> oil and gas \u201ca gift from God\u201d at the Petersberg Climate Dialogue in Berlin, signalling continued investment in increased gas production. That is despite signing up, like all countries, to a global agreement<\/a> to transition away from fossil fuels \u201cin keeping with the science\u201d at the COP28 UN climate summit in Dubai last December.<\/p>\n

Nonetheless, as its capital Baku gears up to host COP29, Azerbaijan also wants to show off its efforts<\/a> to adopt clean energy and cut planet-heating emissions to the outside world.<\/p>\n

Nagorno-Karabakh, and the surrounding provinces, lie at the centre of this push. The government has declared<\/a> a \u201cgreen energy zone\u201d here, adding<\/a> a dozen hydropower plants, and seeking to attract foreign investment in solar and wind.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev in front of a screw turbine hydro power plant in Zangilan, one of the territories recaptured in 2020. Photo: Azerbaijan Presidency<\/p><\/div>\n

Across the country, the government wants renewables to make up<\/a> 30 percent of its installed electricity capacity by 2030 – up from<\/a> 7 percent in 2023. The main motivation is to reduce the use of gas in its own power stations so that more of it can be shipped to Europe, President Aliyev said<\/a> during an event at ADA University in Baku in April.<\/p>\n

Azerbaijan is also planning to achieve \u201cnet zero\u201d carbon emissions in Karabakh by 2050, as outlined in its latest national climate action plan<\/a> (NDC) submitted under the UN climate process. It says that \u201cto revitalise the territories liberated from occupation\u201d, the government will establish \u201csmart\u201d settlements, promote \u201cgreen\u201d energy zones, agriculture and transport, and reforest \u201cthousands of hectares\u201d.<\/p>\n

For Anna Ohanyan, a senior scholar in the Russia and Eurasia programme at the US-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, \u201cit\u2019s greenwashing of an ethnic cleansing, pure and simple\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cAzerbaijan is putting a stamp on the territory as a way to legitimise the conquest of Nagorno-Karabakh and doing so under the pretence of helping fight climate change,\u201d she told Climate Home.<\/p>\n

The COP29 spokesperson said in emailed comments that this view “has no basis in fact”, adding that Azerbaijan is rebuilding houses for its citizens who were internally displaced during the conflict, “according to UN sustainability standards”.<\/p>\n

Disputed territory<\/b><\/h3>\n

Territorial disputes over the Nagorno-Karabakh region have a long and complex history.<\/p>\n

\u201cAzerbaijan and Armenia – both are convinced this is historic patrimony of their people,\u201d said Audrey Altstadt, a professor of history at the University of Massachusetts Amherst who specialises in Azerbaijan.<\/p>\n

As the Soviet Union set about governing its far-flung provinces in the 1920s, then Commissar of Nationalities, Joseph Stalin, ruled that the region should be part of Soviet Azerbaijan, even though ethnic Armenians made up<\/a> 94% of its population at the time.<\/p>\n

In the 1980s, alongside the fall of the Soviet Union, tensions began to rise after Nagorno-Karabakh\u2019s governing authorities declared their intention to join Armenia and Azerbaijan reacted by attempting to suppress separatists.<\/p>\n

After the two sides gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, clashes between them escalated into an all-out war.<\/p>\n

By the time fighting stopped three years later, Azerbaijan had suffered a crushing defeat, losing not just Nagorno-Karabakh but also a sizable chunk of territory around it. Ethnic Armenians declared a separatist republic in the region with the backing of Armenia.<\/p>\n

\"Evolution<\/a>

Evolution of territorial control over Nagorno-Karabakh, and surrounding districts, from the aftermath of the 1994 war until today. Graphic: Fanis Kollias<\/p><\/div>\n

Some 870,000 Azeris abandoned their homes in the captured area and Armenia itself, while around 300,000 ethnic Armenians fled Azerbaijan, according to the United Nations\u2019 refugee agency<\/a>.<\/p>\n

For 15 years the conflict remained frozen, while international actors – led by the United States, France and Russia – tried, and failed, to find a peaceful resolution.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Azerbaijan\u2019s autocratic president, Aliyev, took matters into his own hands in September 2020, mounting a large-scale military offensive on Nagorno-Karabakh. Powered by more sophisticated weaponry, and <\/span>backed<\/span><\/a> by <\/span>T\u00fcrkiye,<\/span> Azeri forces prevailed during a 44-day war that <\/span>claimed the lives<\/span><\/a> of at least 7,000 people – including over 100 civilians.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Under a <\/span>ceasefire agreement<\/span><\/a> signed in November 2020, Azerbaijan gained a significant proportion of Nagorno-Karabakh, including the coveted town of Shushi – called Shusha by Azeris – as well as winning control of adjacent districts.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Soon afterwards, Baku <\/span>announced<\/span><\/a> a colossal programme to rebuild and repopulate the region, establishing \u201cgreen energy zones\u201d in Nagorno-Karabakh and East Zangezur.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Rebuilding ‘from scratch’<\/h3>\n

Deep behind a string of police checkpoints, the plan is proceeding apace. It includes Aghali, one of the \u201csmart\u201d villages created by the government to accommodate Azeri citizens displaced from the area three decades ago.<\/p>\n

\u201cEverything we build here, starting from houses to schools, is based on the element of solar,\u201d said Vahid Hajiyev, special representative of the Azerbaijan presidency in Jabrayil, Gubadli and Zangilan districts, addressing a group of international reporters.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe whole area had been devastated,\u201d added Hajiyev, saying it was largely abandoned and littered with mines after Armenia captured it. \u201cWe’re doing everything from scratch and that gives an opportunity to do it right.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

A view of Aghali, a “smart” village created by the Azerbaijani government in the territories retaken from Armenia, in April 2024. Photo: Matteo Civillini<\/p><\/div>\n

A nearby screw hydro turbine provides electricity for the whole village, while homes are equipped with solar water heating systems, officials told Climate Home.<\/p>\n

\u201cSmart agriculture\u201d projects are being developed to give work to the more than 860 people who, according to government figures, have already moved into the village, with hundreds more expected to join them soon, they added.<\/p>\n

Climate Home was not able to talk to any of the residents, besides government officials, and was not shown around the homes.<\/p>\n

Aghali offers a template for around 30 similar villages the Azeri government plans to erect across the captured regions. They are just one part of the mammoth construction drive in the Karabakh area, bankrolled<\/a> by Baku to the tune of just under $2.5 billion a year – around 12% of total public spending.<\/p>\n

While the official vision projects an eco-paradise, in Baku\u2019s breakneck drive to put it into practice, the landscape currently resembles a sprawling construction site, as seen by Climate Home and shown by satellite images.<\/p>\n