{"id":47570,"date":"2022-11-15T06:00:21","date_gmt":"2022-11-15T06:00:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.climatechangenews.com\/?p=47570"},"modified":"2022-11-15T16:06:00","modified_gmt":"2022-11-15T16:06:00","slug":"cop27-bulletin-xi-biden-thaw-climate-relations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.climatechangenews.com\/2022\/11\/15\/cop27-bulletin-xi-biden-thaw-climate-relations\/","title":{"rendered":"Cop27 bulletin: Xi, Biden thaw climate relations"},"content":{"rendered":"

After four hours of talks on the Indonesian island of Bali last night, US president Joe Biden and China\u2019s president Xi Jinping have\u00a0agreed to talk more<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

There was no joint statement. But both governments\u2019 summaries said the two largest emitters will \u201cwork together\u201d. The US\u00a0said<\/a>\u00a0on climate change, China\u00a0said<\/a>\u00a0on Cop27.<\/p>\n

That doesn\u2019t automatically mean the US-China working group is back on but it does mean climate envoys John Kerry and Xie Zhenhua can talk formally here in Sharm el-Sheikh \u2013 with agendas, notes and decisions. US secretary of state Anthony Blinken will visit China to pick up where Biden and Xi left off.<\/p>\n

\n

Indonesia’s coal-to-clean package<\/h3>\n

Today in Bali, Indonesia is expected announce a “just energy transition partnership”, which the US and Japan led on. A source with knowledge of the negotiations told Climate Home that the deal was likely to be between $18 billion and $20 billion. Another said that includes private sector finance.<\/p>\n

This follows the\u00a0South African model<\/a>\u00a0of a package to create green jobs and economic regeneration for coal-dependent areas on the journey to clean energy.\u00a0Indonesia has\u00a0been\u00a0keen to consult on its plans<\/a>\u00a0and negotiate favourable terms before agreeing on the size of the package.<\/p>\n

The Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR)\u00a0think tank, which is advising the government on the deal,\u00a0estimates<\/a>\u00a0there are 5GW of coal plant capacity which are highly polluting and could be closed at a cost of $4.5 billion. That\u2019s the low-hanging fruit.<\/p>\n

In total, IESR estimates that replacing all of Indonesia\u2019s coal capacity with renewables will cost about 60 times what\u2019s on offer here – $1.2 trillion.<\/p>\n

A key question is how much will be delivered in grants vs loans. And will coal plant owners be compensated for early closures? While the emissions wins could be considerable, that feels icky.<\/p>\n

\n

Political clashes deferred<\/h3>\n

Ministers have arrived in Sharm el-Sheikh this week to take the baton from negotiators, but the Egyptian presidency is not ready for that.<\/p>\n

Foreign minister Sameh Shoukry told a plenary on Monday technical discussions will continue until this evening and ministerial consultations on key outstanding issues will only start Wednesday. Traditionally, representatives from developed and developing countries are paired up to find landing zones on the thorniest issues.<\/p>\n

That compresses the timeline to thrash out political differences. Meanwhile ministers are stuck politely reiterating their positions\u00a0in roundtable events.<\/p>\n

There is no consensus on how to ramp up national emissions targets. The battle lines on loss and damage finance have not budged: the\u00a0options<\/a>\u00a0are to establish a new facility, or work with a “mosaic” of funding arrangements. Check out Carbon Brief\u2019s\u00a0tracker<\/a>\u00a0for where each issue is at.<\/p>\n

Egypt\u00a0is banking on progress in technical discussions to move the needle by tonight.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s going to be a brutally hard second week for climate negotiators at Cop27,\u201d dean of the Fletcher School\u00a0Rachel Kyte\u00a0tweeted<\/a>.<\/p>\n

In private, both developed and developing country negotiators told Climate Home that ministers could be brought in earlier to start working towards a political resolution. One Cop veteran defended the timetable as not particularly unusual.<\/p>\n

\n

Whither, cover text?<\/h3>\n

These summits usually produce a “cover text”, which puts a unifying narrative on the various technical outcomes. A draft is taking longer to emerge than normal.<\/p>\n

Wael Aboulmagd, Egypt\u2019s Cop27 special representative, set out the challenge: \u201cThere are two extremes and everything in between. The idea is to get everyone\u2019s views in there.\u201d<\/p>\n

Some countries, including Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil, want to keep the text to a minimum. Others, including Europeans, see it as an opportunity to set a political direction. The UK wants references to reform of multilateral development banks and just energy transition partnerships – elements of progress outside the formal negotiating agenda.<\/p>\n

The dynamics suggest Egypt could settle for a\u00a0shorter document than the 8-page\u00a0Glasgow Pact.<\/p>\n

Cop decision texts don\u2019t have to turn into major political declarations every year. On the other hand, this is the place where Egypt can address\u00a0expectations that Cop27 will deliver for vulnerable countries.<\/p>\n

One big question is\u00a0whether\u00a0the text will include language on keeping the 1.5C goal within reach. That\u2019s backed by least developed countries, small island states, the EU and the US.<\/p>\n

Emerging countries including China want to stick to the language of the Paris Agreement to hold the temperature increase \u201cwell below 2C\u201d and \u201cpursue efforts\u201d to limit it to 1.5C.<\/p>\n

It’s a row set to dominate\u00a0the G20 leaders\u2019 summit in Bali, which starts today. Ministers were\u00a0unable to agree on a joint communique<\/a>\u00a0in September\u00a0after pushback by China and India on emphasising 1.5C as the world\u2019s climate goal.<\/p>\n

As with US-China cooperation, the parameters\u00a0of a Sharm deal\u00a0may be set from\u00a0hundreds of miles away.<\/p>\n

\n

Fact check<\/h3>\n

At Cop27 on Friday, Joe Biden\u00a0announced<\/a>\u00a0\u201calongside the European Union and Germany, a $500 million package to finance and facilitate Egypt\u2019s transition to clean energy\u201d.<\/p>\n

What the US is contributing to this is not clear. Germany is\u00a0giving<\/a>\u00a0\u20ac250m. That\u2019s\u00a0\u20ac100m in loans on better than normal terms, \u20ac100m in debt forgiveness and \u20ac50m in grants.<\/p>\n

Asked what the US is bringing, a spokesperson for the German development ministry (BMZ) said to ask the Americans. The US state department has not responded to repeated requests.<\/p>\n

Other European countries are\u00a0delivering<\/a>\u00a0$300m through the European Bank on Reconstruction and Development.<\/p>\n

Together, all this European cash adds up to around 550m dollars or euros. More than the $500m Biden announced.<\/p>\n

So what exactly is the US bringing? The\u00a0joint US-German-Egyptian statement<\/a>\u00a0says the US and Germany will provide \u201cexpected support of \u20ac85m equivalent in grants\u201d.<\/p>\n

If you take off Germany\u2019s \u20ac50m in grants, does that mean the US\u2019s sole contribution is an \u201cexpected\u201d grant of \u20ac35m and some help mobilising private finance?<\/p>\n

It would explain why they\u2019re not replying to our messages.<\/p>\n

\n

In brief…<\/h3>\n

Moral support?\u00a0<\/strong>\u2013 Germany’s\u00a0insurance-based<\/a>\u00a0“Global Shield” initiative for climate victims\u00a0officially launched on Monday. Germany is contributing \u20ac170m, France \u20ac20m, Ireland \u20ac10m and Canada \u20ac7m.\u00a0President Joe Biden claimed the US was \u201csupporting\u201d the initiative, but it\u00a0was not on the\u00a0list of initial funders<\/a>. “Further contributions by donors are expected to materialise soon,”\u00a0said the German development\u00a0ministry.<\/p>\n

Big brother\u00a0<\/strong>\u2013\u00a0Germany has complained to Egyptian authorities of unwanted monitoring and filming of its events at Cop27 by security officials. The UN confirmed Egyptian national security officers are at the venue and is\u00a0investigating the complaints,\u00a0Deutsche Welle<\/a>\u00a0reports. Germany has been vocal on human rights and held an event with imprisoned activist Alaa Abd el-Fattah\u2019s sister.<\/p>\n

\u2018Ludicrous\u2019<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 Cop27 special representative Wael Aboulmagd told a press conference that the media reports of the complaints were \u201cvague\u201d and \u201cmostly inaccurate\u201d. \u201cOn the face of it, it seems ludicrous. It was an open event. Everyone could walk in. Why would anyone put surveillance?\u201d<\/p>\n

LNG export club<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013\u00a0Mozambique\u2019s first cargoes of LNG shipped out of the country on Monday. The Gas Exporting Countries Forum\u00a0hailed<\/a>\u00a0the news. Its secretary general Mohamed\u00a0Hamel\u00a0congratulated<\/a>\u00a0Mozambique commissioner Jer\u00f3nimo Chivavi in the plenary room at Cop27.<\/p>\n

NDC watch<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 Bahamas, Vietnam, Andorra, Timor-Leste have\u00a0submitted<\/a>\u00a0updated national climate plans since the start of Cop27. The biggest economy among them,\u00a0Vietnam,\u00a0strengthened<\/a>\u00a0its\u00a02030 emission targets to 15.8% from BAU unconditionally and 43.5% with international support.<\/p>\n

Alaa lives<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 The Egyptian authorities have provided proof that British-Egyptian activist Alaa Abd el-Fattah is alive, his sister\u00a0Sanaa Seif reports<\/a>. A note in el-Fattah’s handwriting,\u00a0dated 12 November, says he is drinking water again.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Sign up<\/a>\u00a0to our newsletter get daily updates from Cop27 climate summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, straight to your inbox","protected":false},"author":39,"featured_media":47572,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4665,1483],"tags":[],"coauthors":[4267,4545,3983,4904],"class_list":["post-47570","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cop27","category-un-climate-talks","type-newsletter"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nCop27 bulletin: Xi, Biden thaw climate relations<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Sign up\u00a0to our newsletter get daily updates from Cop27 climate summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, straight to your inbox\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" 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