{"id":46278,"date":"2022-04-14T17:56:23","date_gmt":"2022-04-14T16:56:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.climatechangenews.com\/?p=46278"},"modified":"2022-04-20T10:48:34","modified_gmt":"2022-04-20T09:48:34","slug":"no-red-alert-was-issued-ahead-of-south-african-floods-that-killed-300-people","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.climatechangenews.com\/2022\/04\/14\/no-red-alert-was-issued-ahead-of-south-african-floods-that-killed-300-people\/","title":{"rendered":"No red alert was issued ahead of deadly South African floods"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>A communication breakdown, inadequate infrastructure and housing in informal settlements contributed to a high death toll from devastating floods around the South African port city of Durban, experts say.<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The heaviest rains in decades pummeled the <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">KwaZulu-Natal province, killing more than 300 people and causing <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/climatehomenews.us1.list-manage.com\/track\/click?u=6316d25f7b68919349e54a251&amp;id=2b0bdf7d6f&amp;e=3fe6000d16\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">billions of rand worth of damages<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to properties and infrastructure.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Torrential rainfall caused mudslides which trapped people under buildings, with <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/climatehomenews.us1.list-manage.com\/track\/click?u=6316d25f7b68919349e54a251&amp;id=15ad1b167c&amp;e=3fe6000d16\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">officials describing<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0the event as \u201cone of the worst weather storms in the history of our country.&#8221; President Cyril Ramaphosa said the flooding was \u201ca catastrophe of enormous proportions&#8221;.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">&#8220;<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">First indications are that about one month of average rainfall occurred over one or two days,&#8221; Mark New, director of the African Climate and Development Initiative (ACDI) at the University of Cape Town (UCT), told Climate Home News.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">&#8220;After detailed analysis, I wouldn\u2019t be surprised if this turned out to be a one-in-a-hundred-year event, or even rarer,&#8221; New said.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Some survivors blamed poor drainage and badly built housing for the high death toll. Durban mayor Mxolisi Kaunda <a href=\"https:\/\/www.the-star.co.ke\/news\/africa\/2022-04-13-south-africa-floods-kill-more-than-250-officials\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">disagreed<\/a>, insisting the scale of flooding was unexpected.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But the authorities have questions to answer over the province&#8217;s preparedness for such an extreme event.<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<style type=\"text\/css\">\n<p>                #mc_embed_signup{background:#fff; clear:left; font:14px Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif; }<\/p>\n<p>                \/* Add your own Mailchimp form style overrides in your site stylesheet or in this style block.<\/p>\n<p>                   We recommend moving this block and the preceding CSS link to the HEAD of your HTML file. *\/<\/p>\n<\/style>\n<div id=\"mc_embed_signup\">\n<form id=\"mc-embedded-subscribe-form\" class=\"validate\" action=\"https:\/\/climatehomenews.us1.list-manage.com\/subscribe\/post?u=6316d25f7b68919349e54a251&amp;id=bf939f9418\" method=\"post\" name=\"mc-embedded-subscribe-form\" novalidate=\"\" target=\"_blank\">\n<div id=\"mc_embed_signup_scroll\">\n<p><label for=\"mce-EMAIL\">Want climate news in your inbox? Sign up for free to get our weekly newsletter and occasional extra bulletins<\/label><input id=\"mce-EMAIL\" class=\"email\" name=\"EMAIL\" required=\"\" type=\"email\" value=\"\" placeholder=\"your email address\" \/><\/p>\n<div style=\"position: absolute; left: -5000px;\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><input tabindex=\"-1\" name=\"b_6316d25f7b68919349e54a251_bf939f9418\" type=\"text\" value=\"\" \/><\/div>\n<div class=\"clear\"><input id=\"mc-embedded-subscribe\" class=\"button\" name=\"subscribe\" type=\"submit\" value=\"Subscribe to Climate Weekly\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><!--End mc_embed_signup--><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The South African Weather Service forecast the flooding over 24 hours in advance, but did not issue a red alert. On Monday evening they raised an orange warning, indicating a medium likelihood of severe impacts, including loss of life.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">&#8220;The reason the warning never reached red is that issuing a red level warning requires coordination with provincial and local disaster management authorities,&#8221; <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Christopher Jack, <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">deputy director of the Climate System Analysis Group at the University of Cape Town, told Climate Home News.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">&#8220;The impact is likely an order of magnitude higher than it should have been had sufficient effort and resources been effectively directed towards upgrading informal settlements and improving management of rivers,&#8221; Jack<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> said. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">&#8220;Improved disaster risk management doesn&#8217;t have to cost a lot, it just requires better coordination.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Debra Roberts, co-chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report on climate impacts, said the deadly floods had hit the poor hardest.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">&#8220;It\u2019s the poor and disadvantaged that are carrying the heaviest load in terms of climate impacts,&#8221; Roberts told scientists and policymakers at the Royal Society London on Monday by video link from Durban.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Inequitable access to basic services is exacerbating this injustice, she said. \u201cPeople who have access to basic services have a much higher adaptive capacity to those who don\u2019t \u2013 and if you go out into Durban\u2019s informal settlements today you\u2019ll see just how true that is.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Insurance is one way for communities to recover from severe flooding, but Roberts said people living in informal settlements do not have access to this.\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">&#8220;They literally lost everything. They will experience a loss in living standards. Many have lost absolutely all the material goods that they have in this world including their house today,&#8221; she said.<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.climatechangenews.com\/2022\/02\/24\/us-seeks-to-remove-losses-and-damages-from-scientific-report-on-climate-impacts\/\"><strong>IPCC:<\/strong> US seeks to remove \u2018losses and damages\u2019 from scientific report on climate impacts<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Gina Ziervogel, associate professor in the department of environmental science at the University of Cape Town, said high levels of poverty in South Africa undermine the country&#8217;s ability to withstand climate shocks.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">&#8220;Adapting to climate does require improving early warning systems and infrastructure to withstand extreme events. But it also requires addressing inequality and capacity more broadly to deal better with multiple shocks,&#8221; she said.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Francois Engelbrecht, director and professor of climatology at the University of the Witwatersrand, told Climate Home News that a very similar flooding event occurred three years ago, causing severe mudslides which killed 70 people in the province.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">&#8220;The 2019 event should have been a clear warning to the provincial and national governments, about how vulnerable communities in the province are to flash floods and mudslides,&#8221; he said.\u00a0 <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">&#8220;As long as we have communities in South Africa living in areas below the flood line, or along steep hillsides where mudslides occur, the hard reality is that we will see more lives being lost during extreme rainfall events.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/report\/ar6\/wg1\/downloads\/factsheets\/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Regional_Fact_Sheet_Africa.pdf\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The IPCC&#8217;s sixth assessment report<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> warned that rising temperatures will increase the frequency and the intensity of heavy rainfall and flooding in southeastern Africa, as well as the wind speeds of tropical storms and the proportion of category 4-5 cyclones.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Climate change made extreme rainfall during a series of major storms in Madagascar, Malawi and Mozambique this year heavier and more frequent, according to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/climatehomenews.us1.list-manage.com\/track\/click?u=6316d25f7b68919349e54a251&amp;id=948ff666b2&amp;e=3fe6000d16\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">analysis from World Weather Attribution<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. The region was hit by three cyclones and two tropical storms in six weeks.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">&#8220;The rainfall associated with such storms has become more likely and more intense,&#8221; Dr Friederike Otto from Imperial College London said. &#8220;What we can say for sure is, the damages of such storms have become worse.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p>The <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">South African Weather Service and provincial government did not respond to Climate Home&#8217;s request for comment.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Experts say a communication breakdown, poor housing and inadequate infrastructure contributed to a death toll from extreme rainfall of 300 and 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