{"id":45917,"date":"2022-02-28T11:00:23","date_gmt":"2022-02-28T11:00:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatechangenews.com\/?p=45917"},"modified":"2022-02-28T11:01:39","modified_gmt":"2022-02-28T11:01:39","slug":"un-report-shows-us-human-costs-of-climate-failure","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.climatechangenews.com\/2022\/02\/28\/un-report-shows-us-human-costs-of-climate-failure\/","title":{"rendered":"UN report shows us human costs of climate failure"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Monday\u2019s report from the second working group (WGII) of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the most exhaustive assessment of climate risks and humankind\u2019s ability to adapt to them ever undertaken.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It is at once a withering indictment and an industrious guide, admonishing our reckless treatment of nature while offering practical solutions to avoid the worst consequences of our actions.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">At its heart is a plea, unprecedented in urgency and scale, from the world\u2019s leading climate scientists to the governments of Earth: transform how we live now or face an unliveable future.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Scientists, perhaps particularly climate scientists, are cautious by nature, bound by research norms to \u201c<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/abs\/pii\/S0959378012001215?via%3Dihub\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">err on the side of least drama<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201d. While previous IPCC assessment reports did not shy away from the risks posed by climate change, many of their predictions were couched in the realm of the hypothetical. Given the variability of models and less-than-complete observational datasets, this circumspect approach was, at the time, the correct one.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Assessment Report Six (AR6) dispenses with hypotheticals, offering the most sure-footed evaluation yet of how we have already changed our climate beyond many ecosystems\u2019 ability to cope.<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><a href=\"http:\/\/five-takeaways-from-the-uns-2022-climate-impacts-report\"><strong>IPCC:<\/strong> Five takeaways from the UN&#8217;s 2022 climate impacts report<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/site\/assets\/uploads\/2018\/02\/ar5_wgII_spm_en.pdf\">introduction to 2014\u2019s Fifth Assessment (AR5)<\/a> warns \u201cclimate change poses risks for human and natural systems\u201d, a summary of Monday\u2019s report upgrades that to &#8220;has caused widespread adverse impacts and related losses and damages to nature and people\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Where AR5 was vague &#8211; \u201csome impacts on human systems have also been attributed to climate change\u201d &#8211; AR6 is direct: \u201cClimate change has caused impacts on human health, livelihoods and key infrastructure\u201d.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The possible perils raised by the IPCC in 2014 are coming to pass. AR5\u2019s summary contains 54 references to \u201cpotential\u201d or \u201cpotentially\u201d. In Monday&#8217;s WGII summary, it&#8217;s down to 21. In many cases, what was \u201cprojected\u201d less than a decade ago has now become \u201cunavoidable\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As data proliferates and as observation techniques and modeling become ever more sophisticated, scientists have more information than ever to draw upon and state, with unrivaled authority, that a climate emergency is unfolding all around us. And more data points from the past and present mean more solid foundations upon which to build future scenarios.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<style type=\"text\/css\">\n<p>                #mc_embed_signup{background:#fff; clear:left; font:14px Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif; }<\/p>\n<p>                \/* Add your own Mailchimp form style overrides in your site stylesheet or in this style block.<\/p>\n<p>                   We recommend moving this block and the preceding CSS link to the HEAD of your HTML file. *\/<\/p>\n<\/style>\n<div id=\"mc_embed_signup\">\n<form id=\"mc-embedded-subscribe-form\" class=\"validate\" action=\"https:\/\/climatehomenews.us1.list-manage.com\/subscribe\/post?u=6316d25f7b68919349e54a251&amp;id=bf939f9418\" method=\"post\" name=\"mc-embedded-subscribe-form\" novalidate=\"\" target=\"_blank\">\n<div id=\"mc_embed_signup_scroll\">\n<p><label for=\"mce-EMAIL\">Want climate news in your inbox? Sign up for free to get our weekly newsletter and occasional extra bulletins<\/label><input id=\"mce-EMAIL\" class=\"email\" name=\"EMAIL\" required=\"\" type=\"email\" value=\"\" placeholder=\"your email address\" \/><\/p>\n<div style=\"position: absolute; left: -5000px;\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><input tabindex=\"-1\" name=\"b_6316d25f7b68919349e54a251_bf939f9418\" type=\"text\" value=\"\" \/><\/div>\n<div class=\"clear\"><input id=\"mc-embedded-subscribe\" class=\"button\" name=\"subscribe\" type=\"submit\" value=\"Subscribe to Climate Weekly\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><!--End mc_embed_signup--><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The data simply reflects the reality that in the eight years since IPCC scientists issued their last equivalent warning, one Paris Agreement and the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/climate-environment\/2022\/01\/13\/global-temperature-record-climate-change\/\">seven hottest years on record<\/a> later, greenhouse gas emissions have <a href=\"https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions\">continued their relentless rise<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Freiderike Otto, a physicist at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.imperial.ac.uk\/grantham\/\">Imperial College\u2019s Grantham Institute<\/a> and lead AR6 author, said that WGII\u2019s urgent tone was \u201cprobably due to the fact that we still have not managed globally to even change the rate of increase of emissions\u201d.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cWhat this report does very differently to AR5 &#8211; which is why it feels so much more urgent and real &#8211; is that it shows climate change is not a future threat. It is here now. It is affecting those who are the most vulnerable in every society around the world,\u201d Otto told Climate Home.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A major advance since AR5 is attribution science, which explores to what extent individual extreme weather events such as flooding and drought can be directly blamed on human-caused climate change.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Michael Oppenheimer, a geosciences professor at the <a href=\"https:\/\/spia.princeton.edu\/\">Princeton School of Public and International Affairs<\/a> and former IPCC author, said that there had been a growing \u201cnote of urgency\u201d in recent IPCC reports.<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.climatechangenews.com\/2021\/08\/12\/ipcc-report-call-arms-climate-science-courts-legal-experts-say\/\"><strong>IPCC <\/strong>report a \u2018call to arms\u2019 for climate science in courts, legal experts say<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">He said that attribution, coupled with the findings of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/sr15\/\">IPCC\u2019s 2018 special report on 1.5C<\/a>, had<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> \u201cchanged the public discourse in the media and grabbed the attention of the public and policymakers\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cThis has had a liberating effect on the ability of scientists in these reports and elsewhere to report what they actually think rather than diluting the public message to avoid a sense of alarm,\u201d he told Climate Home.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cAlarm &#8211; assuming it comes hand-in-hand with greater action to reduce emissions &#8211; now seems entirely appropriate to the reality.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For despite the damage global heating has already wrought for millions &#8211; from food and water insecurity to heightened vulnerability to disease and extreme weather events &#8211; it is the damage yet to come that ought to keep heads of state awake at night. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Many impacts are<\/span> inevitable. No matter what happens to greenhouse gas emissions, the Paris Agreement temperature rise cap of 1.5C will be breached within decades, leading to \u201cunavoidable increases in multiple climate hazards\u201d, according to the 4,000-page report.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Beyond 2040, climate change is projected to lead to no fewer than 127 key risks, with impacts \u201cup to multiple times higher\u201d than at present. Thirst, hunger and disease are coming.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That\u2019s the bad news. Or part of it.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">AR6&#8217;s WGII also assesses in unrivaled detail how we as a species may adapt to these seemingly endless climate threats.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.climatechangenews.com\/2022\/02\/25\/invasion-tears-ukraines-climate-community-away-from-lifes-work\/\"><strong>Invasion<\/strong> tears Ukraine\u2019s climate community away from life\u2019s work<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Large chunks of the report are dedicated to real-world solutions to help with water (more efficient irrigation, increased retention, early warning systems) and food (agroforestry, pest control, urban agriculture) security, as well as preserving and restoring nature.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Working Group II co-chair Debra Roberts said the report \u201c<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">shifts the dial from creating a narrative of risk to looking at where there is agency and possibility for responses in human and natural systems.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So should the main takeaway from Monday\u2019s report be: \u201cWe can change?&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cThere have been losses and damages from human-induced climate change for decades that we have not avoided,\u201d said Otto.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cBut where we should focus our attention is that a lot of these losses and damages are so large because of high vulnerability and high exposure of populations. This is not god-given, we have the agency to address and change this.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cWe know what is coming. We know how to deal with this. We have adaptation strategies, we just haven\u2019t implemented them.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.climatechangenews.com\/2021\/08\/04\/timeline-science-linking-climate-change-extreme-weather-took-off\/\"><strong>Timeline:<\/strong> How the science linking climate change to extreme weather took off<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The direction of travel leaves much to be desired. There is not enough money going into adaptation. The poor, who need it most, get least. Many initiatives are shortsighted, reducing risk today while storing up more problems for the future. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Monday\u2019s report also confronts the limits to adaptation. In some areas, these limits are already being tested, in ecosystems such as coral reefs and in the households of families who face constant flood risk but lack the means to move to safer ground. Other limits loom ahead, such as irretrievable water loss from vanishing glacier networks, or diminishing staple crop-growing areas.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">One thing is plain. Without sweeping reductions of the greenhouse emissions driving temperature rises, no amount of adaptation can save many ecosystems and sectors from collapse.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">&#8220;No matter what other critical issues are begging for your attention, like Covid or Ukraine&#8230; please keep enough of your government\u2019s focus on climate change so that progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions can accelerate and catch up with the rate at which the climate is changing,&#8221; said Oppenheimer.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Many of the risks projected in 2014 are now unavoidable reality, as climate science outpaces action to avert the 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