{"id":44420,"date":"2021-07-07T23:00:37","date_gmt":"2021-07-07T22:00:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.climatechangenews.com\/?p=44420"},"modified":"2021-07-09T17:34:49","modified_gmt":"2021-07-09T16:34:49","slug":"north-american-heatwave-broke-records-climate-models","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.climatechangenews.com\/2021\/07\/07\/north-american-heatwave-broke-records-climate-models\/","title":{"rendered":"North American heatwave broke records – and the climate models"},"content":{"rendered":"

Climate scientists have warned the world is already experiencing extreme heat events that were only predicted to occur on a much warmer planet. <\/strong><\/p>\n

The extraordinary heat that engulfed the north west of Canada and the US last week broke temperature records by several degrees, with temperatures settling above 40C for days and reaching 49.6C in the village of Lytton, Canada.<\/p>\n

Shortly after, Lytton was destroyed in wildfires. In Western Canada, nearly 500 people are estimated to have died<\/a> and experts expect the death toll to rise.<\/p>\n

Without the influence of human-caused climate change, the heatwave would have been \u201cvirtually impossible\u201d, according to a rapid attribution analysis by an international team of 27 leading climate scientists that worked around the clock to publish the study.<\/p>\n

Climate change, they found, made the heatwave at least 150 times more likely to happen \u2013 with such extreme heat not occurring under current statistical analysis.<\/p>\n

Ocean fire<\/strong> exposes weak regulation of Mexico\u2019s oil and gas sector<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The findings have prompted scientists to question their understanding of climate change\u2019 impact on heatwaves, which could lead to some climate models having to be revised.<\/p>\n

Friederike Otto, of the Environmental Change Institute in Oxford University, one of the study\u2019s author, said climate science had been \u201ca bit complacent\u201d on how it understands heatwaves.<\/p>\n

The intensity of heatwaves is increasing in orders of magnitude not seen for other extreme events, she said. \u201cHeatwaves is how climate change kills us. It\u2019s how climate change manifests itself more strongly.\u201d<\/p>\n

Using observations and computer stimulation, scientists compared the past climate in the area covering Portland, Seattle and Vancouver with current trends after global warming of around 1.2C since the late 19th<\/sup> century.<\/p>\n

They found that temperatures during last week\u2019s event were so extreme that it was difficult to estimate with confidence how rare the event was but suggested it equated to a once in a thousand year event in today\u2019s climate.<\/p>\n

Want more climate news?\u00a0<\/b>Sign up to get updates straight to your inbox<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological, another of the authors, told reporters the heatwave shattered previous temperature records by up to 5C \u2013 “an extraordinary event”.<\/p>\n

\u201cAs comparison, here in the Netherlands we were really shocked when the previous record was broken by 1.8C and this is more than double that.”<\/p>\n

The heatwave, Van Oldenborgh said, is “both a major disaster and weather event but also a major scientific challenge to understand what happened”.<\/p>\n

He said the state of climate science in 2020 would have shown the heatwave to be \u201cbasically impossible\u201d and more research was needed to understand how it came about and whether such an event could happen in other parts of the world.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s rather shaking that our theoretical picture of how heatwaves behave was broken so roughly,\u201d he said. \u201cWe are much less certain about how climate [change] affects heatwaves than we were two weeks ago.\u201d<\/p>\n

South Africa\u2019s<\/strong> climate advisers urge faster shift away from fossil fuels<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The authors of the paper identified two possible explanations for the extreme jump in peak temperatures observed in North America.<\/p>\n

The first is \u201creally bad luck\u201d and that, albeit exaggerated by climate change, this remains a very low probability event. However, in a future world with 2C of global heating, such an extreme heatwave could happen once every 5 to 10 years, the study found.<\/p>\n

An alternative explanation is that the climate system in that area has crossed a threshold that increased the probability of such extreme heat far beyond the gradual hike in temperatures peaks that have been observed so far.<\/p>\n

Under this scenario, record-breaking heatwaves like last week\u2019s event are already more likely to happen than climate models predict \u2013 something which the team of scientists say requires further investigation.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is such an exceptional event that we can’t rule out the possibility that we’re experiencing heat extremes today that we only expected to come at higher levels of global warming,\u201d said Otto.<\/p>\n

If this second scenario proved to be correct, it may lead to the revision of climate models.<\/p>\n

If an essential climate process is missing from the current climate models, these will \u201cdefinitely have to be improved,\u201d said Van Oldenborgh.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Climate scientists were shocked by the recent lethal heatwaves in western Canada and northwestern US, which exceeded all global heating predictions","protected":false},"author":39,"featured_media":44423,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,159],"tags":[4225],"coauthors":[4267],"class_list":["post-44420","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-adaptation","category-climate-science","tag-heatwave","type-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nNorth American heatwave broke records - and the climate models<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Climate scientists were shocked by the recent lethal heatwaves in western Canada and northwestern US, which exceeded all global heating predictions\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.climatechangenews.com\/2021\/07\/07\/north-american-heatwave-broke-records-climate-models\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"North American heatwave broke records - 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