{"id":40753,"date":"2019-11-13T06:00:41","date_gmt":"2019-11-13T06:00:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.climatechangenews.com\/?p=40753"},"modified":"2019-11-15T11:24:46","modified_gmt":"2019-11-15T11:24:46","slug":"iea-world-energy-outlook-outlines-1-5c-scenario","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.climatechangenews.com\/2019\/11\/13\/iea-world-energy-outlook-outlines-1-5c-scenario\/","title":{"rendered":"IEA World Energy Outlook outlines 1.5C scenario"},"content":{"rendered":"

The International Energy Agency is relying on the deployment of large-scale negative emissions technology in the last part of the century to limit warming to 1.5C, according to its latest major report. <\/strong><\/p>\n

The agency\u2019s World Energy Outlook (WEO) is regarded as a reference for governments, companies and investors on the state of the world\u2019s energy prospects and explores possible futures for global energy trends.<\/p>\n

In the report, published on Wednesday, the IEA extended its Sustainable Development Scenario to achieve the tougher Paris Agreement goal of 1.5C.<\/p>\n

Under this scenario, the IEA sets out what would need to happen for the world to limit global temperature rise to \u201cwell below 2C\u201d: oil demand peaks within the next few years, universal energy access is achieved by 2030 and energy-related CO2 emissions fall 3.8% per year to less than 10 gigatonnes in 2050 to put the world on track to achieve net zero emissions by 2070.<\/p>\n

On this trajectory, the IEA found the world would have a two in three chance of limiting global temperature rise to 1.8C without having to remove CO2 from the air by producing bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (Beccs), for instance.<\/p>\n

IEA<\/strong> develops pathway to ambitious 1.5C climate goal<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Under the same scenario, the IEA gives a 50% change of meeting the 1.5C goal by using negative emissions technologies after 2070 to absorb around 300Gt of CO2 \u2013 making-up for overshooting the emissions limits that would keep temperatures below 1.5C.<\/p>\n

The IEA acknowledged there are \u201cuncertainties\u201d about the scale, impacts and costs of negative emissions, which require large amounts of land, potentially conflicting with food production. But its scenario is only modelled to 2050 and does not assess whether the deployment of negative emissions at scale in the last part of the century is feasible or sustainable.<\/p>\n

Instead, the IEA argues its scenario would use less negative emissions than the average level of CO2 that needs to be removed from the air in IPCC scenarios, which give a 50% chance or more of limiting warming to 1.5C.<\/p>\n

\"\"

Source: IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

For Joeri Rogelj, a scientist at Imperial College and a lead author on the International Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) 1.5C report, the comparison with IPCC scenarios is \u201ca smoke screen\u201d masking the IEA scenario\u2019s lack of consistency with long-term sustainable development.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe amount of CO2 removal needed after 2070 to meet 1.5C would go well beyond the sustainable limits that the IPCC has identified,\u201d he said, describing it as \u201creally problematic\u201d.<\/p>\n

Instead, the scenario \u201cends in 2050 with a world warming beyond a level science considers compatible with sustainable development of poor and vulnerable populations,\u201d he told CHN.<\/p>\n

Climate news straight to your inbox?<\/strong>\u00a0Sign up here<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The WEO report does include a short and undetailed pathway for the world to achieve the 1.5C goal without negative emissions. Under this pathway, developed countries achieve carbon neutrality by 2045 and developing countries by 2050 \u2013 a goal that is not currently being considered by large emitters such as China and India.<\/p>\n

Rogelj said the IEA\u2019s \u201chesitant\u201d attention to the 1.5C goal was \u201ca positive step\u201d but also a \u201cmissed opportunity\u201d to fully align the WEO with international ambition.<\/p>\n

In June, CHN reported that the IEA was exploring options to develop a scenario aligned with the 1.5C goal<\/a> after the agency came under fire<\/a> in a letter from scientists, business leaders and campaigners for not considering the Paris Agreement\u2019s more ambitious target.<\/p>\n

This opened a debate about the role of the IEA setting norms around global energy use. The agency\u2019s business as usual scenario, which charts a world on track to at least 2.7C of warming, remains the WEO\u2019s central reference for investors, rather than a scenario aligned to the Paris goals.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s simply not enough to explore 1.5C in a couple of paragraphs if the bulk of the analysis remains focused on this default pathway that would put us on track for a catastrophic path of warming,\u201d said Kelly Trout, senior research analyst at Oil Change International.<\/p>\n

\u201cBy continuing to fall short on ambition, the IEA normalises disastrous levels of fossil fuel investment,\u201d she added.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Observers warn the IEA\u2019s projection is inconsistent with the world\u2019s long-term sustainable development needs ","protected":false},"author":39,"featured_media":40756,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4247,607,1483],"tags":[115,4352,4353],"coauthors":[4267],"class_list":["post-40753","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-1-5c","category-carbon-markets","category-un-climate-talks","tag-iea","tag-international-energy-agency","tag-world-energy-outlook","type-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nIEA World Energy Outlook outlines 1.5C scenario<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Observers warn the IEA\u2019s projection is 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