{"id":37066,"date":"2018-07-23T12:44:48","date_gmt":"2018-07-23T11:44:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.climatechangenews.com\/?p=37066"},"modified":"2018-07-30T10:39:57","modified_gmt":"2018-07-30T09:39:57","slug":"ecosystems-across-australia-collapsing-climate-change","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.climatechangenews.com\/2018\/07\/23\/ecosystems-across-australia-collapsing-climate-change\/","title":{"rendered":"Ecosystems across Australia are collapsing under climate change"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Our research, recently published in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41558-018-0187-9.epdf?author_access_token=iAnWdzF8nglwSjS6WZjIQtRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0M0c_-6ZvaWXrnL2jFBT7Yw34Qy4vTMk1Pz3OongvDmduy-kjSa2n8SMnX3uTMrFZ8UO-y8wwKdoknAdWQUEMFydUOf9govlSST8gxKn6agFw%3D%3D\" target=\"_blank\">Nature Climate Change<\/a>, describes a series of sudden and catastrophic ecosystem shifts that have occurred recently across Australia.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">These changes, caused by the combined stress of gradual climate change and extreme weather events, are overwhelming ecosystems\u2019 natural resilience.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>Variable climate<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Australia is one of the most <\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/11\/3\/035003\/meta\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">climatically variable places<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in the world. It is filled with ecosystems adapted to this variability, whether that means living in scorching heat, bitter cold or a climate that cycles between the two.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Despite land clearing, mining and other activities that transform the natural landscape, Australia retains large tracts of <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.uq.edu.au\/news\/article\/2017\/12\/new-maps-show-shrinking-wilderness-being-ignored-our-peril\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">near-pristine natural systems<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Many of these regions are iconic, sustaining tourism and outdoor activities and providing valuable ecological services \u2013 particularly fisheries and water resources. Yet even here, the combined stress of gradual climate change and extreme weather events is causing environmental changes. These changes are often abrupt and potentially irreversible.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">They include wildlife and plant population collapses, the local extinction of native species, the loss of ancient, highly diverse ecosystems and the creation of previously unseen ecological communities invaded by new plants and animals.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Australia\u2019s average temperature (both air and sea) has increased by about <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au\/en\/climate-campus\/australian-climate-change\/australian-trends\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">1\u00b0C since the start of the 19th century<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. We are now experiencing <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/are-heatwaves-worsening-and-have-hot-days-doubled-in-australia-in-the-last-50-years-79337\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">longer, more frequent and more intense heatwaves<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, more <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/future-bushfires-will-be-worse-we-need-to-adapt-now-53041\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">extreme fire weather and longer fire seasons<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, changes to rainfall seasonality, and droughts that may be <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/recent-australian-droughts-may-be-the-worst-in-800-years-94292\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">historically unusual<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The interval between these events has also shortened, which means even ecosystems adapted to extremes and high natural variability are struggling.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As climate change accelerates, the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/climate-change-and-weather-extremes-both-heat-and-cold-can-kill-77449\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">magnitude and frequency of extreme events<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is expected to continue increasing.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>What is ecosystem collapse?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Gradual climate change can be thought of as an ongoing \u201cpress\u201d, on which the \u201cpulse\u201d of extreme events are now superimposed. In combination, \u201cpresses\u201d and \u201cpulses\u201d are more likely to push systems to collapse.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We identified ecosystems across Australia that have recently experienced catastrophic changes, including:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">kelp forests shifting to seaweed turfs following a single marine heatwave in 2011;<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">the destruction of Gondwanan refugia by wildfire ignited by lightning storms in 2016;<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">dieback of floodplain forests along the Murray River following the millennial drought in 2001\u20132009;<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">large-scale conversion of alpine forest to shrubland due to repeated fires from 2003\u20132014;<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">community-level boom and bust in the arid zone following extreme rainfall in 2011\u20132012, and<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">mangrove dieback across a 1,000km stretch of the Gulf of Carpentaria after a weak monsoon in 2015-2016.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Of these six case studies, only the Murray River forest had previously experienced substantial human disturbance. The others have had negligible exposure to stressors, highlighting that undisturbed systems are not necessarily more resilient to climate change.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The case studies provide a range of examples of how presses and pulses can interact to push an ecosystem to a \u201ctipping point\u201d. In some cases, a single extreme event may be sufficient to cause an <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/static-content.springer.com\/esm\/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41558-018-0187-9\/MediaObjects\/41558_2018_187_MOESM1_ESM.pdf\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">irreversible regime shift<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>If you\u00a0like what we do, support us<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Become a CHN\u00a0patron for as little as $5 per month to help us keep bringing you the most in-depth coverage of climate politics and underreported stories from around the world.<\/p>\n<p>We have set up\u00a0<a id=\"LPlnk815326\" href=\"https:\/\/www.patreon.com\/climatehomenews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span id=\"LPlnk815326\">a Patreon account<\/span><\/a>. It\u2019s a simple, safe and easy way for you to become part of a community that will secure and guide our future.<\/p>\n<p>Thank you!<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In other systems, a single extreme event may only be sufficient to tip the ecosystem over the edge when gradual declines in populations have <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/static-content.springer.com\/esm\/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41558-018-0187-9\/MediaObjects\/41558_2018_187_MOESM1_ESM.pdf\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">already occurred<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. More frequent extreme events can also lead to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/static-content.springer.com\/esm\/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41558-018-0187-9\/MediaObjects\/41558_2018_187_MOESM1_ESM.pdf\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">population collapse<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> if a species does not have enough time to recover between events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But not all examples can be directly linked to a single weather event, or a series of events. These are most likely caused by multiple <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/static-content.springer.com\/esm\/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41558-018-0187-9\/MediaObjects\/41558_2018_187_MOESM1_ESM.pdf\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">interacting<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0climate \u201cpresses\u201d and \u201cpulses\u201d. It\u2019s worth remembering that extreme biological responses do not always manifest as an impact on the dominant species. Cascading interactions can trigger <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/static-content.springer.com\/esm\/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41558-018-0187-9\/MediaObjects\/41558_2018_187_MOESM1_ESM.pdf\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">ecosystem-wide responses to extreme events<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>The cost of intervention<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Once an ecosystem goes into steep decline \u2013 with key species dying out and crucial interactions no longer possible \u2013 there are important consequences.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Apart from their intrinsic worth, these areas can no longer supply fish, forest resources, or carbon storage. It may affect livestock and pasture quality, tourism, and water quality and supply.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Unfortunately, the sheer number of variables \u2013 between the species and terrain in each area, and the timing and severity of extreme weather events \u2013 makes predicting ecosystem collapses essentially impossible.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Targeted interventions, like the assisted recolonisation of plants and animals, reseeding an area that\u2019s suffered forest loss, and actively protecting vulnerable ecosystems from destructive bushfires, may prevent a system from collapsing, but at considerable financial cost. And as the interval between extreme events shorten, the chance of a successful intervention falls.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Critically, intervention plans may need to be decided upon quickly, without full understanding of the ecological and evolutionary consequences.<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.climatechangenews.com\/2016\/12\/28\/2016-the-year-climate-change-came-home\/\"><strong>2016:<\/strong> the year climate change came home <\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">How much are we willing to risk failure and any unintended consequences of active intervention? How much do we value \u201cnatural\u201d and \u201cpristine\u201d ecosystems that will increasingly depend on protection from threats like invasive plants and more frequent fires?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We suspect the pervasive effects of the press and pulse of climate change means that, increasingly, the risks of doing nothing may outweigh the risks of acting.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The beginning of this century has seen an unprecedented number of widespread, catastrophic biological transformations in response to extreme weather events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This constellation of unpredictable and sudden biological responses suggests that many seemingly healthy and undisturbed ecosystems are at a tipping point.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/rebecca-harris-118508\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Rebecca Harris<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is a climate research fellow at the University of Tasmania. <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/donate.theconversation.com\/uk?utm_source=theconversation.com&amp;utm_medium=website&amp;utm_campaign=friend_of_the_conversation_badge\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">David Bowman<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is a professor of environmental change biology at the University of Tasmania. <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/linda-beaumont-463897\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Linda Beaumont<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is a senior lecturer at Macquarie University.<\/span><\/em><br \/>\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/counter.theconversation.com\/content\/99367\/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced\" alt=\"The Conversation\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Great Barrier Reef has become a notorious victim of climate change. But it is not the only Australian ecosystem on the brink of collapse","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":37068,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[159,2443,3861,771,3864,1995,3859],"tags":[],"coauthors":[3984],"class_list":["post-37066","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate-science","category-comments","category-comment","category-corals","category-nature","category-pacific","category-world","type-comment"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Ecosystems across Australia are collapsing under climate change<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Great Barrier Reef has become a notorious victim of climate change. 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