{"id":36858,"date":"2018-06-27T11:07:17","date_gmt":"2018-06-27T10:07:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.climatechangenews.com\/?p=36858"},"modified":"2018-07-19T14:53:56","modified_gmt":"2018-07-19T13:53:56","slug":"warming-2c-substantially-harmful-1-5c-draft-un-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.climatechangenews.com\/2018\/06\/27\/warming-2c-substantially-harmful-1-5c-draft-un-report\/","title":{"rendered":"Warming of 2C ‘substantially’ more harmful than 1.5C – draft UN report"},"content":{"rendered":"

A leaked draft of a major UN climate change report shows growing certainty that 2C, once shorthand for a \u2018safe\u2019 amount of planetary warming, would be a dangerous step for humanity.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The authors make clear the difference between warming of 1.5C and 2C would be \u201csubstantial\u201d and\u00a0damaging to communities, economies and ecosystems across the world.<\/p>\n

In\u00a02015, the Paris Agreement\u00a0established twin\u00a0goals to hold temperature rise from pre-industrial times \u201cwell below 2C\u201d\u00a0and strive for\u00a01.5C.<\/p>\n

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)\u00a0has since been working to assess the difference between those targets, with a view to publishing a sweeping analysis of all available research in October this year.<\/p>\n

The report summary, which Climate Home News published<\/a> on Wednesday, is a draft and subject to change. The IPCC said it would not comment on leaked reports. An earlier draft from January was also published by CHN<\/a>.<\/p>\n

CHN has compared the January and June drafts. The new version\u00a0builds a stronger case for governments to rapidly cut carbon pollution. It\u00a0also strikes a marginally more optimistic tone\u00a0on the\u00a0attainability of the 1.5C target.<\/p>\n

If you\u00a0like what we do, support us<\/strong><\/p>\n

Become a CHN\u00a0patron for as little as $5 per month to help us keep bringing you the most in-depth coverage of climate politics and underreported stories from around the world.<\/p>\n

We have set up\u00a0a Patreon account<\/span><\/a>. It\u2019s a simple, safe and easy way for you to become part of a community that will secure and guide our future.<\/p>\n

Thank you!<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

In January, authors\u00a0said\u00a0every\u00a00.5C\u00a0added to today’s level of 1C of warming would “increase” the risks of various impacts.\u00a0That wording has been beefed up throughout the new summary,\u00a0which now predicts \u201csubstantial increases\u201d in those risks.<\/p>\n

Bill Hare, a physicist and CEO of Climate Analytics, said the new draft had made big steps forward in clarifying the difference between the two Paris temperature goals.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf one looks across many parts of the report there are really very substantial improvements since January,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Since the first draft was circulated, a number of studies focusing on the differing impacts of 1.5C and 2C warming have been published. New evidence on the impacts on species, the economy, physical systems and invasive pests has been incorporated in the report.<\/p>\n

A\u00a0report<\/a> released in April allowed the IPCC to predict\u00a0that at 2C it was “very likely that there will be at least one sea ice free Arctic summer per decade”, whereas this would happen just once per\u00a0century at 1.5C.<\/p>\n

The draft was also changed in line with new research<\/a> on economic impacts, finding “growth is projected to be lower at 2C than at 1.5C of global warming for many developed and developing countries”.<\/p>\n

Leaked:<\/strong> final government draft of UN 1.5C climate report \u2013 in full and annotated<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The major outstanding question about\u00a0the 1.5C target is: is it feasible? In the new draft, the scientists write \u201cthere is no simple answer\u201d.<\/p>\n

On current levels of pollution, the world is warming roughly 0.2C each decade. If that continues,\u00a0the 1.5C threshold will be crossed in the 2040s, the report says.<\/p>\n

However\u00a0comparison of the drafts reveals a significant\u00a0increase in\u00a0the “carbon budget” – the total mass of greenhouse gases that can be emitted before the world will be committed to warming past 1.5C.<\/p>\n

The\u00a0January draft found a maximum of 580 gigatonnes of CO2\u00a0would give\u00a0a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5C. In the new draft, that number has been increased by a third to 750GtCO2.<\/p>\n

In January, authors wrote scenarios that gave a 66% chance of staying under 1.5C were \u201calready out of reach\u201d. That language has been dropped, although the new draft does not say these higher probabilities are now considered feasible.<\/p>\n

A coal power plant in Tianjin, China. Primary energy from coal must be reduced by two thirds by 2030 for 1.5C to be possible, the draft says (Photo: Shubert Ciencia)<\/p><\/div>\n

CHN asked IPCC authors and scientists not directly involved in the\u00a0summary to help explain the difference between the budgets. None were willing to comment on the record.<\/p>\n

One researcher said the process for calculating the budget was “highly intransparent”.<\/div>\n

The calculation of carbon budgets relies on assumptions and different approaches produce numbers that vary by \u201cmore than 50%\u201d, according to the new draft. That covers a real world set of emissions cuts that range from virtually unachievable to challenging but possible.<\/p>\n

The first draft of the special report was released for feedback from researchers in January. After receiving tens of thousands of comments it was revised and on 4 June a new draft was\u00a0sent to governments for review.<\/p>\n

The\u00a0final government\u00a0draft summary published on this website<\/a> contains detailed annotations by CHN reporters on many of the changes made between the first and second drafts of the report.<\/p>\n

Both versions of the report find the 1.5C goal requires\u00a0CO2 emissions from electricity\u00a0to reach net zero by mid-century.<\/p>\n

The second draft adds a note that: \u201cThe political, economic, social and technical feasibility of solar energy, wind energy and electricity storage technologies increased over the past few years, signalling that such a system transition in electricity generation may be underway.\u201d<\/p>\n

The latest draft summary places\u00a0more emphasis on efforts to cut emissions before 2030. This mirrors many countries\u2019 pledges to the Paris Agreement, which set emissions targets for that year.<\/p>\n

Pressure is growing for these promises to be increased. On Monday, 14 EU countries\u00a0called<\/a><\/u>\u00a0on the European Commission\u2019s long term climate strategy, which is under development, to\u00a0align with the\u00a01.5C limit.<\/p>\n

Climate commissioner:\u00a0<\/strong>EU\u00a0can increase 2030 pledge to Paris Agreement<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The summary elaborates on what\u00a0a \u201crapid and far-reaching\u201d transition looks like for different sectors.<\/p>\n

Renewables deployment needs to accelerate further for 1.5C to be possible, the draft says, with primary energy from coal falling two thirds by 2030. For comparison, the International Energy Agency\u00a0forecasts<\/a><\/u>\u00a0coal use increasing slightly over the period, based on existing and signposted policies.<\/p>\n

It calls for sustainable management of competing demands on the land. This includes \u201cdiet changes\u201d – code for the rich eating less steak – and \u201csustainable intensification\u201d of farming, which is viewed with suspicion by many environmentalists.<\/p>\n

Radical emissions cuts are also needed in industry, transport and buildings, where it says technology exists but faces economic and social barriers.<\/p>\n

The final section deals with sustainable development and how efforts to meet the 1.5C limit interact with goals like eradicating poverty.<\/p>\n

In the first summary, the authors warned there was a \u201chigh chance\u201d\u00a0the 1.5C target \u201cmight not be feasible\u201d because efforts\u00a0to\u00a0remove\u00a0carbon from the atmosphere, through tree-planting or use of carbon capture with biofuels, can conflict with other development priorities and take up land used for food production.<\/p>\n

This language has been toned down, instead concluding the feasibility of such methods \u201cdepends on scale, [and the] implications for land, water and energy use\u201d.<\/p>\n

Republish this article<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Latest version of major UN science report concludes the upper temperature goal of the Paris Agreement does not represent a climate safe zone","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":36869,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2434,159,4234],"tags":[2625,144],"coauthors":[4122,3983,4222],"class_list":["post-36858","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-2c","category-climate-science","category-ipcc","tag-1-5c","tag-ipcc","type-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWarming of 2C 'substantially' more harmful than 1.5C - draft UN report<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Latest version of major UN science report concludes the upper temperature goal of the Paris Agreement does not represent a climate safe zone\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.climatechangenews.com\/2018\/06\/27\/warming-2c-substantially-harmful-1-5c-draft-un-report\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Warming of 2C 'substantially' more harmful than 1.5C - 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