{"id":35569,"date":"2017-12-13T12:00:28","date_gmt":"2017-12-13T12:00:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.climatechangenews.com\/?p=35569"},"modified":"2017-12-12T11:27:45","modified_gmt":"2017-12-12T11:27:45","slug":"world-leaders-can-change-us-position-paris-says-trump-climate-advisor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.climatechangenews.com\/2017\/12\/13\/world-leaders-can-change-us-position-paris-says-trump-climate-advisor\/","title":{"rendered":"US ‘no position’ on how much humans are changing climate, says Trump envoy"},"content":{"rendered":"

Donald Trump’s climate advisor George David Banks\u00a0cut an intriguing, divisive figure at the recent climate talks in Bonn.<\/strong><\/p>\n

His appearance at negotiations\u00a0to\u00a0lay down rules for the Paris Agreement, which\u00a0Trump wants to leave<\/span><\/a>, attracted\u00a0widespread opprobrium.<\/p>\n

But few White House officials understand international climate policy as well as Banks. The free market advocate served as a special advisor on international climate affairs under president George W Bush. After Bush decided not to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, the precursor to the Paris climate agreement, Banks designed the ‘major economies forum’, a meeting that became a key driver of climate ambition\u00a0during the Obama presidency.<\/p>\n

\n

Climate Weekly:<\/strong>\u00a0The week\u2019s climate news, in your inbox<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

In Bonn,\u00a0he headed\u00a0a panel with US energy industry executives that\u00a0was met by\u00a0a mass walkout. After\u00a0that talk, he told Climate Home News that he\u00a0didn’t know what the 2C target<\/a>\u00a0<\/span><\/span>–<\/span>\u00a0a\u00a0widely used benchmark for dangerous warming\u00a0– meant. (He clarifies that here).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

He was keen to present the\u00a0White House\u00a0as reasonable and those who dismiss whole industries – such as coal – as ideological and irrational.<\/p>\n

Appearing for an impromptu visit to the media centre the next day, he appeared harried – face reddened, surrounded by press packs and activists, trying not to spill his coffee, gamely sparring with interlocutors who saw him as an envoy of evil. In conversation a few minutes later, he was relaxed, responsive and bright.<\/p>\n

Banks is no enthusiast for climate action and wouldn’t be drawn on the human contribution to climate change. But, privately, he does not question the science and was part of a group of advisors who tried to convince\u00a0the president to stay in the Paris deal. That conversation, he told Climate Home News on the sidelines in Bonn, was now over inside\u00a0the administration and could only be continued by foreign leaders.<\/p>\n

AN: Can I just ask one more time about the 2C, I can see you don\u2019t want to answer the question. Maybe the White House doesn\u2019t have policy on this?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

GDB: Yeah, so that\u2019s funny you know because this is an issue we talked about in the Bush administration too, right? And I really feel that people, people were I guess interested in my response.<\/span><\/p>\n

I don\u2019t know what it means. But from a policy perspective and how you chart a pathway forward for technologies, I don\u2019t know what it means. And I\u2019ve never actually participated – maybe I’m not in the right discussions – but I’ve never actually participated in a discussion where someone is using the 2C target to figure out when they need to deploy this or that technology.<\/span><\/p>\n

It\u2019s always been kind of a lofty target out there. But from an administration perspective, we haven\u2019t discussed it.\u00a0It was not part of the Paris discussion we had.<\/span><\/p>\n

The argument would be it\u2019s the level above which the effects of climate change become catastrophic, 97% of the world\u2019s scientists agree with this perspective and\u00a0it\u00a0is an imperative because theres no manufacturing or competitiveness on a dead planet.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Of course, of course. But I still don\u2019t know what it means from a policy discussion perspective.<\/span><\/p>\n

What it means is taking that into account for the energy sector. I mean you said that human activity contributes to climate change. Can you quantify that?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Quantify it?<\/span><\/p>\n

Yeah how much of climate change do you think is caused by human activity?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

I can\u2019t quantify it. I mean, I can\u2019t.<\/span><\/p>\n

Why not?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

First of all, the administration doesn\u2019t have a position on it, right? But if you were to ask me personally, I\u2019d say I can’t give you a percent, but I know the\u00a0percentages people throw around but I don\u2019t know.<\/span><\/p>\n

A large part?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Oh quantify it that way?<\/span><\/p>\n

Yes, a very large part? A majority?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

The administration doesn\u2019t have a position on that. [In November, the White House endorsed a report<\/a> produced by 13 federal agencies, which concluded more than 90% of current climate change had been caused by humans – ed]<\/span><\/p>\n

A lot of people in the EU – senior people – that I\u2019ve spoken to believed that in the run up to the Rose Garden speech there was an attempt to land the president on various sides of the argument – stay in and try to renegotiate or leave.\u00a0The very strong perception in Brussels is that you were trying to persuade the president to stay within Paris.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

The president heard from a lot of different people. I was really surprised by how many discussions he had on this. He was lobbied by heads of state across the board – the chancellor, the prime minister, former vice president Gore. He had at least one or two conversations with him, at least.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

And he heard from the people who were really concerned about it and it was a campaign promise that he made. And I think that during the campaign it was my understanding and, looking at his speeches and seeing what he said, he spoke from a manufacturing piece [about] the impacts of the agreement, including the Obama NDC [nationally determined contribution]. He met the campaign promise. It was important to keep that promise. And again he was really concerned about the NDC.<\/span><\/p>\n

There\u2019s a\u00a0Ukrainian proposal<\/span><\/a>\u00a0you probably won\u2019t know about. It\u2019s to create an intermediary layer at the\u00a0Cop [conference of parties] between the nations and the NDCs, and within that, energy corporates would be invited and given direct participation in the talks.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

The idea from Ukraine\u2019s side would be to stimulate clean coal technology transfer deals. In so much as it meets the US agenda in terms of manufacturing industry – you know keeping coal jobs, expanding coal jobs, and the\u00a0‘clean coal’\u00a0industry – does that idea have merit to you?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

So, I\u2019ve heard about it. I haven\u2019t seen it… I don\u2019t know enough about it. It sounds interesting. I don\u2019t know how it works, right? I kind of look at the\u00a0Cop and I think that it\u2019s already dysfunctional in a lot of ways. And I don\u2019t know how adding other stuff to it works.<\/span><\/p>\n

I do think that the lack of industry participation – and I\u2019m talking about industry that is impacted by the climate agenda in a negative way, not a positive way – I think that the lack of their participation makes it a lot more difficult. But I would argue that the lack of participation by energy and economic ministers makes it more difficult. I don\u2019t think this conversation should be led by the environment ministers.<\/span><\/p>\n

Who should it be led by?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

It should be the energy [ministers] because it\u2019s an energy issue. You can\u2019t separate energy from climate because it\u2019s an energy issue. Mitigation, right? Adaptation yes, but not mitigation.<\/span><\/p>\n

So in that sense, how could the\u00a0Cop process be reformed so as to create more favourable conditions for the US to participate?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Well, we\u2019re going to stay in the framework convention.<\/span><\/p>\n

I was talking about the Paris Agreement.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Ah right, the Paris Agreement. I think that\u2019s a decision made by the president.<\/span><\/p>\n

Are there any ideas that you are working on while you are here?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

No, no, no. We\u2019re not looking at those options anymore. I think it’s, you know, I don\u2019t think it\u2019s a negotiation. I don\u2019t think it\u2019s a conversation. Its not a technical negotiation that I think you would have at the Cop. It\u2019s a heads of state negotiation.<\/span><\/p>\n

What would be a successful outcome of this\u00a0Cop for you?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

We want to make sure that we do what we can to\u00a0avoid bifurcation<\/span><\/a>, period, right? Differentiation. It\u2019s a fundamental flaw of the framework convention. You know, because it divides up – it\u2019s the world in actually, I think we ratified it in 1992. Did it come into force in 1992?<\/span><\/p>\n

I think so, yes.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

But you know the conversation started in the late 80s right? So it\u2019s a world view, its like a cold war view of the world when we\u2019re living in a global economy. If you don\u2019t have a graduation mechanism where companies can move backwards and forward, my goodness! Parts of central and eastern Europe should have been developing countries, right? After the collapse of communism. And South Korea? Israel? I mean: come on, you know?<\/span><\/p>\n

So what about the argument of historic responsibility? What about the argument that America, Britain, Russia industrialised and got the benefits of using coal and fossil fuels and they created the problem – or contributed to the problem – and now the developing world would be punished for that if they were given exactly the same targets before they\u2019d even started to industrialise, some of them.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

I think it\u2019s a good question. I would say and by the way I\u2019ve been asked this question around the Paris Agreement – people saying \u2018if China does more, will that bring you back in?\u2019 My response to that is that’s not the kind of conversation that we want to have.\u00a0We\u2019re not asking developing countries to accept reduction targets in exchange for us having a reduction target right?<\/span><\/p>\n

But when it comes to reporting and transparency and accounting, a country like China should not be treated differently. Now for some poorer countries or the poorest countries, that might be a different situation where they actually need capacity building in order to be able to avoid emissions. But you could also make the argument that it really doesn\u2019t matter. It doesn\u2019t matter if Mozambique reports its emissions, from a global point of view. Because they don\u2019t really matter. But it matters if China does. So yeah, I think it answers your question.<\/span><\/p>\n

One last question, some people have raised questions about US climate negotiators here. It\u2019s been suggested that morale is low among some of them. Is that true?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Look I think we’ve got a great team. I think we\u2019ve got the best negotiators in the world. True professionals. A lot of them spent a lot of time on the Paris Agreement. A lot of them have spent years working on climate policy. They’re professionals. You have shifts in policy. That\u2019s very natural with new administrations. But we\u2019ve got the best team in the world, no doubt, no doubt.<\/span><\/p>\n

They\u2019re yuge<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

[Both laugh]<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"George David Banks speaks with Arthur Neslen about keeping the US in the Paris deal, morale in the state department and why he said he didn’t know what 2C means","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":35572,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4170,98],"tags":[4070],"coauthors":[4125],"class_list":["post-35569","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cop23","category-us","tag-trump","type-interview"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nUS 'no position' on how much humans are changing climate, says Trump envoy<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"George David Banks speaks with Arthur Neslen about keeping the US in the Paris deal, morale in the state department and why he said he didn't know what 2C means\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" 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