{"id":32944,"date":"2017-01-26T21:52:16","date_gmt":"2017-01-26T21:52:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.climatechangenews.com\/?p=32944"},"modified":"2017-01-27T09:33:53","modified_gmt":"2017-01-27T09:33:53","slug":"bps-energy-outlook-reality-check-or-pr-bullshit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.climatechangenews.com\/2017\/01\/26\/bps-energy-outlook-reality-check-or-pr-bullshit\/","title":{"rendered":"BP’s energy outlook: reality check or PR bullshit?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Disruption is quite literally on BP\u2019s doorstep. Two electric cars sit charging on the square outside its London headquarters.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Through the lobby and down the stairs \u2013 please hold onto the handrail, for your health and safety \u2013the chief economist presents his 2017 energy outlook to a packed room.<\/p>\n

It is Spencer Dale\u2019s time to shine. He is relaxed and affable as he paints a future of robust oil demand and (oops) busted climate targets.<\/p>\n

\u201cAny single projection or forecast 20 years ahead will almost certainly be wrong,\u201d he says, getting his disclaimer in early. \u201cIt is about understanding the uncertainty you face.\u201d<\/p>\n

Uncertainty for oil and gas demand is uncertainty for the climate. And this year more than ever, the narrative turns on climate action: not if<\/em> the clean energy revolution will take off, but when<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Weekly briefing:<\/strong> Sign up for your essential climate politics update<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The conclusion is familiar: greenhouse gas emissions will slow but not peak early enough or fall fast enough to stay within the temperature limits 195 countries have committed to.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou might not like it and you might not really agree, but basically energy companies are saying the Paris Agreement is not going to transform the energy sector sufficiently fast to achieve the 2C target,\u201d says Jonathan Grant, a director in PwC’s sustainability unit.<\/p>\n

In the detail, though, there are signs the landscape is shifting in the climate\u2019s favour. Predictions for renewable energy and electric vehicles have been revised up again<\/a> since last year; fuel demand and emissions revised down.<\/p>\n

And a supplementary analysis offers a hint of how the electrification and automation of private transport could be more disruptive than BP dares imagine.<\/p>\n

\"Illustrative

Illustrative scenarios show how electric vehicles and related technology could dent oil demand in 2035 (Source: BP Energy Outlook 2017)<\/p><\/div>\n

In the base case, 100 million electric vehicles hit the market by 2035, accounting for 6% of the global fleet. \u201cThe impact of EVs on its own is relatively limited,\u201d says Dale, reducing oil demand by 1.2 million barrels a day compared to business as usual \u2013 a drop in the ocean of 23Mbbl demand growth.<\/p>\n

Disingenuously, though, he separates the volume of EVs from the way they are used. Self-driving technology, car sharing and ride pooling are likely to radically reduce the number of vehicles needed, in tandem with a shift away from the internal combustion engine.<\/p>\n

Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimates<\/a> as many as two thirds of cars on the road could be electric by 2030, as these trends combine.<\/p>\n

\u201cEVs are at such an early stage of market introduction, there is massive uncertainty,\u201d says Greg Muttitt, analyst with Oil Change International. \u201cBut there are very realistic scenarios that have EVs being a much larger proportion of the market.\u201d<\/p>\n

BP still wedded to carbon pricing as best climate policy even though other policies have driven low carbon tech deployment to date #bpstats<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Jim Watson (@watsonjim2) January 25, 2017<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n