{"id":31306,"date":"2016-09-28T08:50:38","date_gmt":"2016-09-28T07:50:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.climatechangenews.com\/?p=31306"},"modified":"2016-10-03T17:00:13","modified_gmt":"2016-10-03T16:00:13","slug":"leading-scientist-tells-norway-to-stop-looking-for-oil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.climatechangenews.com\/2016\/09\/28\/leading-scientist-tells-norway-to-stop-looking-for-oil\/","title":{"rendered":"Is it time for Norway to stop looking for oil?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Norway should stop exploring for more oil and gas, leaving it to countries with cheaper reserves or greater development needs.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>That is what one of the world\u2019s leading researchers of \u201cunburnable carbon\u201d told a conference in Oxford on Monday.<\/p>\n<p>In the first summit of its kind, experts debated who should have the right to extract fossil fuels within \u201csafe\u201d climate limits.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf any country in the world needn\u2019t produce its fossil fuel resources, it\u2019s Norway,\u201d said Paul Ekins, professor of resources and environmental policy at UCL.<\/p>\n<p>Half the world\u2019s proven natural gas reserves and a third of oil needs to stay in the ground to keep global warming to 2C, according to a study Ekins co-authored. It was the most influential climate paper of 2015, according to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/analysis-the-climate-papers-most-featured-in-the-media-in-2015\">Carbon Brief analysis<\/a> of news and social media coverage.<\/p>\n<p>Based on the cost of different supplies, Ekins and colleague Christophe McGlade also estimated how much each region would be able to sell. They judged that Arctic drilling <a href=\"http:\/\/www.climatechangenews.com\/2015\/01\/08\/arctic-oil-unburnable-in-2c-world-study\/\">was not viable<\/a> in a 2C scenario, given the high costs of operating in polar conditions.<\/p>\n<p>Then there is the question of whether poorer countries should be given dispensation to extract more, to redress global inequalities. That is the subject of ongoing research.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.climatechangenews.com\/newsletter-sign-up\/\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Weekly briefing:<\/strong>\u00a0Sign up for your essential climate politics update<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Ekins\u2019 remarks come as the wealthy Nordic petrostate, which counts on oil and gas for more than 20% of GDP, reaches a crossroads.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWith the fall in the oil price, the industry recently has experienced some major problems,\u201d said Bard Lahn, researcher at CICERO, a research institute based in Oslo.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis could lead the policy discussion in two different directions: either it leads to more support for the oil and gas sector, doubling down on production, or it could lead to a discussion about the transition to a low carbon economy.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/F9Rs14R3NbU\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>As Norway trumpets <a href=\"http:\/\/www.climatechangenews.com\/2016\/06\/14\/how-will-norway-go-carbon-neutral-from-2030\/\" target=\"_blank\">ambitious goals<\/a> for reducing (or offsetting) its own greenhouse gas emissions, the climate impact of its main export industry is coming under scrutiny.<\/p>\n<p>Yet the petroleum directorate is inviting bids for a 24<sup>th<\/sup> round of oil licences, including on some of its northernmost frontiers.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhen you see the reasoning behind the new licensing round, there is hardly any mention of climate change at all,\u201d observed Ragnhild Freng Dale, researcher at Cambridge University. \u201cWhere there is talk of climate change, it is about how it is making areas further north accessible.\u201d<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.climatechangenews.com\/2016\/06\/14\/how-will-norway-go-carbon-neutral-from-2030\/\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Analysis:<\/strong>\u00a0How will Norway go carbon neutral from 2030?<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Statoil, which is two thirds owned by the state, is planning with partners to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.statoil.com\/en\/NewsAndMedia\/News\/2016\/Pages\/Barents30Aug2016.aspx\" target=\"_blank\">drill between five and seven wells<\/a> next year in the Barents Sea, off Norway\u2019s northern coast.<\/p>\n<p>Arne Eik, climate change adviser at Statoil, said the company was striving to compete in a carbon-constrained future.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOn the Arctic, we will not invest in projects if they are too costly. We also have requirements when it comes to carbon intensity,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe have enough proven reserves to produce for eight more years, whereas Saudi Arabia has reserves for many many decades. It is not so that Statoil will overshoot the carbon budget by ourselves.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Climate policy primarily focuses on where fossil fuels are burned, whether that is a power station or a car engine.\u00a0That keeps oil suppliers \u2013 and their investors \u2013 busy trying to predict how demand will change over the coming decades.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.climatechangenews.com\/2016\/05\/24\/total-rules-out-arctic-oil-drilling-citing-2c-goal\/\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Report:<\/strong>\u00a0Total rules out Arctic oil drilling, citing 2C goal<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Thina Margrethe Saltvedt, analyst at Nordea Bank, warned that clean technology or regulations might destroy demand faster than producers, with long investment lead times, can respond.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe old idea of buying up reserves because you think at some point in the future it will be profitable isn\u2019t going to work any longer,\u201d she said. \u201cNot all oil companies have taken this into account\u2026 nor has the Norwegian government.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>With the world\u2019s largest sovereign wealth fund, generated from oil revenues, Norway is better placed than many to ride out the transition.<\/p>\n<p>If the government does not choose to draw its oil era to an end, it could face a legal challenge.<\/p>\n<p>Greenpeace Nordic and Young Friends of the Earth Norway wrote to the energy ministry on 9 August, setting out their objections to the latest licences. The main argument is that continued drilling violates citizens\u2019 constitutional right to a health environment for future generations.<\/p>\n<p>They have not yet decided whether to go ahead with the lawsuit, Truls Gulowsen of Greenpeace Nordic told Climate Home by email. But he added that <a href=\"http:\/\/www.climatechangenews.com\/2016\/09\/22\/carbon-in-existing-coal-oil-and-gas-fields-enough-to-breach-climate-limits-study\/\">recent analysis<\/a> by Oil Change International, showing that existing fossil fuel extraction sites blow the 2C carbon budget, strengthened the case.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf we are serious about Paris, we cannot explore for more oil,\u201d said Gulowsen.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Nordic country does not need to keep exploiting fossil fuels, argues Paul Ekins, and should leave remaining carbon budget to 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