{"id":31211,"date":"2016-09-22T07:00:10","date_gmt":"2016-09-22T06:00:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.climatechangenews.com\/?p=31211"},"modified":"2016-09-23T13:58:37","modified_gmt":"2016-09-23T12:58:37","slug":"carbon-in-existing-coal-oil-and-gas-fields-enough-to-breach-climate-limits-study","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.climatechangenews.com\/2016\/09\/22\/carbon-in-existing-coal-oil-and-gas-fields-enough-to-breach-climate-limits-study\/","title":{"rendered":"Existing coal, oil and gas fields will blow carbon budget – study"},"content":{"rendered":"

The world’s working coal mines and oil and gas fields contain\u00a0enough carbon to push the world beyond the threshold for catastrophic\u00a0climate change, according to a report released on Thursday.<\/strong><\/p>\n

If all the existing fuel were to be burned, projects currently\u00a0operating or under construction could be expected to release\u00a0942Gt CO2, said the report by US-based think tank Oil Change International (OCI).<\/p>\n

This exceeds\u00a0the carbon\u00a0limits that would most likely warm\u00a0the world\u00a01.5C and even\u00a0over 2C above the pre-industrial average.\u00a0These were limits agreed at last year’s climate conference in Paris.<\/p>\n

It has been established for some time that the\u00a0enormous unworked reserves claimed by fossil fuel companies contain vastly too much carbon to ever be burned safely<\/a>. But OCI\u00a0said that this was the\u00a0first time an analysis had been done of how\u00a0much greenhouse gas is stored in projects already working or under construction.<\/p>\n

Founder of 350.org and climate campaign Bill McKibben said the report “change[d] our understanding of where we stand. Profoundly”.<\/p>\n

It means that\u00a0even if not a single new coal mine, oil or gas field were opened up, the carbon budget would be\u00a0at risk, said OCI’s\u00a0executive director\u00a0Stephen Kretzmann.<\/p>\n

Projected investment in new extraction sites and infrastructure over the next 20 years adds up to a\u00a0staggering US$14tn, the report found.<\/p>\n

\u201cContinued expansion of the fossil fuel industry is now quite clearly and quantifiably climate denial\u201d said\u00a0Kretzmann.<\/p>\n

\"Source:

Source: Oil Change International<\/p><\/div>\n

The OCI report said\u00a0existing oil and gas fields alone would exceed the carbon budget\u00a0for 1.5C – which is a limit some small island states say would finish them and scientists believe would wipe out most coral reefs.<\/p>\n

James Leaton, research director at the Carbon Tracker\u00a0think tank which did much to\u00a0popularise the concept of “unburnable carbon”,\u00a0said research by Carbon Tracker<\/a> in 2015 showed coal demand\u00a0was declining so quickly that current reserves would be enough. But the picture was less clear for oil and gas.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere is clearly no need for new coal mines to be developed if we are to stay within a 2C carbon budget,” said Leaton. “Because oil and gas production declines over time in any particular well, this may fall faster than the level of oil and gas demand in [a 2C scenario], in which case some new production would be needed. Depending on how much carbon budget you allocate to each fossil fuel, and the speed of the energy transition assumed, the window for new oil and gas will also start to close.\u201d<\/p>\n

In the UK, the government has\u00a0committed to opening its shale gas resources to fracking.\u00a0Ken Cronin, chief executive of the industry body\u00a0UK Onshore Oil and Gas, said:\u00a0\u201cThis report needs to look more deeply into the use of gas in a modern energy mix, looking at areas such as reformation of methane into hydrogen and carbon capture and storage, particularly for heating systems and potentially transport. The simple fact is that the best way to combat climate change is to remove coal ASAP and to do that you need to replace much of the coal capacity with gas.\u201d<\/p>\n

Weekly briefing:<\/strong>\u00a0Sign up for your essential climate politics update<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The OCI report did not take into account carbon capture and storage (CCS), which it argued is still at an “uncertain” stage of development.\u00a0The International Energy Agency\u00a0reported last week<\/a> that CCS, which is fitted to emissions sources to trap carbon, was being rolled out at a rate of just one project every year.<\/p>\n

Study\u00a0author Greg Muttitt said it was\u00a0imperative for governments to focus on shutting down new mines and fields\u00a0before a sod was turned.<\/p>\n

\u201cOnce an extraction operation is underway, it creates an incentive to continue so as to recoup investment and create profit, ensuring the product – the fossil fuels – are extracted and burned. These incentives are powerful, and the industry will do whatever it takes to protect their investments and keep drilling,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

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There is new carbon math coming tomorrow that will change our understanding of where we stand. Profoundly.<\/p>\n

— Bill McKibben (@billmckibben) September 22, 2016<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n