{"id":29511,"date":"2016-04-07T11:12:15","date_gmt":"2016-04-07T10:12:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.climatechangenews.com\/?p=29511"},"modified":"2016-04-07T11:12:15","modified_gmt":"2016-04-07T10:12:15","slug":"us-shale-gas-investors-eye-billion-dollar-gamble","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.climatechangenews.com\/2016\/04\/07\/us-shale-gas-investors-eye-billion-dollar-gamble\/","title":{"rendered":"US shale gas investors eye billion-dollar gamble"},"content":{"rendered":"

US shale oil and gas equity investors are expecting a rebound in prices, given share issuance figures in the first quarter of 2016. But are they backing a dud?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\"Oil

Oil and gas wells in Wyoming’s Jonah field (Pic: Ecoflight<\/a>)<\/p><\/div>\n

By Gerard Wynn<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Investors backed a record amount of new share issuance by US shale oil and gas producers in the first three months of this year, even after a period of lower oil prices left some companies more battered than ever.<\/strong><\/p>\n

That’s the main finding in a\u00a0new report by the Carbon Tracker Initiative, Beyond the Shale: Aboard the Price Roller Coaster<\/a><\/em>.<\/p>\n

Equity investors may be betting on bargains among US shale oil and gas\u00a0exploration and production (E&P) companies, expecting a rebound in oil and gas prices.<\/p>\n

But there are two grounds for caution.<\/p>\n

US E&P valuations have fallen by an aggregate $340 billion since last May, the last time investors were betting on higher oil and gas prices.<\/p>\n

Second, the analysis, which I co-authored, shows how more indebted companies are now even more leveraged than 10 months ago.<\/p>\n

Some, including Chesapeake and Whiting Petroleum, have had to re-negotiate their borrowing terms after soaring leverage ratios looked set to exceed former credit facility covenants.<\/p>\n

Below are four charts which illustrate some considerations for equity investors in U.S. shale.<\/p>\n

Investors are pumping cash back into a weakened US shale industry in record amounts, with the first quarter this year seeing the highest E&P equity issuance since at least 2011.<\/p>\n

Chart 1. US E&P equity issuance and WTI oil price, 2014 to late March 2016<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"US_shale_1_800\"<\/p>\n

But US E&P equity valuations have fallen by an aggregate $340 billion since May 2015, the last time investors were talking up the prospect of a rebound in oil and gas prices.<\/p>\n

Chart 2. Market capitalisation of S&P US Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Select Industry Index, May 2015 to March 8 2016<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"US-EP-equity-index-performance_800\"<\/p>\n

In 2016, most E&P companies project lower output, and many will see less robust hedging.<\/p>\n

The result will be lower pre-tax earnings, or EBITDAX. Creditors often specify a leverage ratio,\u00a0in their borrowing terms to E&P companies, defined as net debt divided by EBITDAX.<\/p>\n

Creditors often specify a maximum leverage ratio of four; a value of four is also the threshold which the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency uses to define \u201csub-standard\u201d E&P bank loans<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The chart below shows how Chesapeake\u2019s leverage ratio is expected to exceed four at any conceivable oil\u00a0 and gas price this year.<\/p>\n

Both Chesapeake and Whiting Petroleum have had to suspend total leverage ratios, under their credit facilities.<\/p>\n

Chart 3. Scenario analysis of Chesapeake, 2016, Net debt\/ Consolidated EBITDAX ratio<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"CHK-scenario-analysis_800\"<\/p>\n

While equity issuance soared in the first three months of this year, US E&P bond issuance has remained below recent historical levels, suggesting prospective creditors are exercising greater caution.<\/p>\n

Do bond investors know something equity investors do not?<\/p>\n

Chart 4. Bond issuance by quarter, U.S. E&P companies, 2014-2016 (as of March 8)<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"US-EP-bond-issuance_800\"<\/p>\n

Gerard Wynn has two decade\u2019s experience in energy, climate change, the environment and economics. In 2014, Gerard founded the consultancy GWG Energy<\/a>, providing communications and analysis services in the fields of energy and climate change.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"ANALYSIS: US shale oil and gas equity investors are expecting a rebound in prices, given share issuance figures in the first quarter of 2016. But are they backing a dud?","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":29518,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2554,98],"tags":[451,16],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-29511","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-carbon-bubble","category-us","tag-fracking","tag-shale-gas","type-analysis"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nUS shale gas investors eye billion-dollar gamble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"ANALYSIS: US shale oil and gas equity investors are expecting a rebound in prices, given share issuance figures in the first quarter of 2016. 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